There’s never a dull moment in crypto town, and the past few years have proved it abundantly. From price crashes, bankruptcies and scandals to new projects, revivals and regulatory crackdowns we’ve seen it all, or have we? Through all the chaos and upheaval, one thing remained the same: Bitcoin continued to be at the center of attention and maintained its position as the undisputed crypto leader, with plenty of platforms giving users the possibility to buy Bitcoin p2p.
But around it and even within it, a lot of things have changed and will most likely continue to shift in the future.
As we’ve come to learn by now, volatility and unpredictability are the name of the game when it comes to digital assets. The cryptocurrency industry is an inexhaustible source of surprises and we can never know for sure what’s going to happen next. But just because predicting the future of the crypto market with accuracy is not possible doesn’t mean financial experts and analysts as well as crypto enthusiasts at large aren’t going to give it their best shot. If anything, trying to forecast crypto price movements and market trends has become a discipline in its own right.
Seeing as everyone has an opinion on crypto and where it may be headed next, we might as well round up the most reasonable theories and predictions and try to paint a realistic picture of what could happen to the industry in the months and years to come.
All eyes on Bitcoin
Due to its share of the total crypto market, which at the time of writing amounted to nearly 48%, Bitcoin’s dominance is still going strong, so there’s no surprise there. As a result, the value and therefore the fate of the cryptocurrency market is inextricably linked to Bitcoin’s evolution. Wherever the flagship crypto is headed, the rest of the assets are bound to follow.
If Bitcoin’s recent trajectory is anything to go by, the crypto market is not out of the woods just yet. While 2023 has been a good year for Bitcoin so far, especially after the terrible crash it suffered in 2022, there’s still a long way to go on the road to recovery. During the first half of 2023, the Bitcoin price has shown resilience with an 83% gain.
But just when everyone was starting to believe that the market might be indeed on the cusp of a new bull run, Bitcoin’s value took an unexpected downturn following an extended period of stagnation. After a few short-lived spikes above $30,000, Bitcoin moved further away from the threshold and was unable to reiterate its year-start success. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $25,869.
The situation remains in a grey area for now, with Bitcoin hovering under 30K for much longer than expected. However, despite the unremarkable performance of the past couple of months, there’s still hope that Bitcoin could resume its ascension and serve as the spark that ignites the next crypto bull market. The strongest argument in support of this theory is the interest that traditional financial firms have shown lately towards the crypto leader.
As investors were starting to lose faith in the crypto market, big investment companies like Blackrock, Fidelity Investments, Invesco and Wisdomtree stepped in and renewed their applications for spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Up until now, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has remained adamant in denying all spot Bitcoin ETF applications on the grounds of insufficient safety measures that expose the market to the risk of fraud and manipulation.
The SEC has delayed its decision on the most recent spot Bitcoin ETF filings, but the mere fact that the subject was brought back into the discussion and the SEC is taking the time to review these applications is reason enough to inject some hope and confidence back into the market.
One of the most notable and widely discussed crypto developments of the past year has been the impending regulation of the crypto market. Among other things, the crypto space gained notoriety for being some sort of financial Wild West where the rules of traditional markets didn’t apply. But if digital currencies want to boost legitimacy and be placed on equal footing with established assets, regulations are non-negotiable.
Countries the world over are making efforts to produce comprehensive regulatory frameworks to oversee the activity in the crypto market and ensure safety and stability for all stakeholders. The only problem with this endeavour is the lack of a cohesive approach, as lawmakers are dealing with unprecedented challenges. Cryptocurrencies are not only unlike any other asset that has been regulated so far, but they also continue to evolve and change constantly, making it difficult for authorities to find viable solutions in this respect.
Moreover, the lack of regulations was a definitory characteristic for digital currencies, and the reason so many people got into crypto in the first place. Therefore, regulating this asset class will require a balancing act from legislators, and many worry that these actions will have a negative impact on the market.
At the moment, the legal landscape surrounding cryptocurrencies and their underlying technology blockchain is highly fragmented, with rules and guidelines varying widely from one jurisdiction to another. The regulatory uncertainty and the changes that are undoubtedly going to happen in this area in the future add to the uncertainty and volatility of the market.
Certain analysts have also voiced concerns over the effects of a possible recession on crypto assets, with many conflicting views stemming from it. While some argue that a recession would increase the demand for high-risk assets and drive prices up, others claim that this could hamper their recovery and growth due to a lack of confidence.
Looking at the potential scenarios that might play out in the future and all the theories that are circulating in this regard, we can conclude that the crypto market is as unstable and unpredictable as ever. While this is a reminder that one should always tread carefully when dealing with cryptocurrencies, it also shows that there’s great potential in the market that shouldn’t be overlooked.